The Turning Point: Henderson vs. Rua

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Let us begin with three certainties from the UFC 139 headliner between Dan Henderson and Mauricio “Shogun” Rua on Saturday at the HP Pavilion in San Jose, Calif.:

1. Henderson won rounds one through three. This much was agreed upon by California State Athletic Commission-appointed judges Ralph McKnight, Steve Morrow and Susan Thomas-Gitlin, all of whom scored the bout 30-27 in favor of the former Strikeforce titleholder after 15 minutes. Whether the brutal third stanza merited a 10-8 score remains a topic of some debate, however.

2. Rua won rounds four and five, including a clear 10-8 in the final period. Scorers from virtually every major MMA media outlet, including Sherdog.com, MMAJunkie.com and MMAWeekly.com, awarded Rua a 10-8 score for the lopsided last round. The same was true for UFC President Dana White, who, like the media, viewed the bout a 47-47 draw. Seemingly the only people who estimated the fifth round a 10-9 were judges McKnight, Morrow and Thomas-Gitlin, who unanimously saw the fight 48-47 for Henderson.

3. The entire grueling, five-round affair hinged on the third round.

In a fight with multiple dramatic swings, it takes a big moment to act as the fulcrum. Henderson’s assault on Rua in round three was exactly that, both for the damage it did to the Brazilian and the toll it would take on the American’s stamina.

Both men entered the middle round looking half-spent. While Rua appeared the worse for wear, his face still seeping blood from early power punches, it was Henderson sucking wind after 10 minutes of inflicting heavy damage, not to mention suffering a first-round knockdown of his own. Still, the pair traded punches at an even, steady clip in the third, until the 41-year-old “Hendo” landed the fight-changer. Taking Rua off balance with a kick to the lead leg, Henderson wound up and delivered one of his signature overhand rights to Shogun’s temple.

Rua hit the deck and Henderson pounced with intent, bashing away with vicious forearms. Half a dozen right hands later, Rua turtled up as referee Josh Rosenthal stood inches away, warning the dazed ex-champion to fight back. Rua did not fight back, but he instead continued clinging to half-guard while absorbing body blows and eventually slipped out from beneath Henderson to attempt a heel hook. With two minutes left in the round, Rua got to his feet, bloodied but unbeaten, and pressed Henderson into the fence. As the men exhaustedly clinched on the cage, it was hard to tell whose energy had been sapped more by the beating.

Reacting to a series of elbows battering his head, Rua dumped Henderson to the ground with less than 60 seconds to go. While a takedown and ground control would have proven insufficient to narrow the scoring gap that had just been created, Rua tightened things up with hard left hands on the floor and the feet in the final minute. Despite the potent knockdown, Rua finished the frame strongly, and data from FightMetric.com reflected a round closer than it appeared: Henderson connected with 33 of 48 attempted strikes (21 significant), while Rua landed 27 of 49 (17 significant).

By comparison, Rua ran away with round five. By the time the fight entered its 20th minute, Henderson could barely muster a punch, much less escape from underneath the fresher, younger Shogun. Rua spent the majority of the round in full mount, passing Henderson’s guard six times and landing more strikes (79 of 97, 26 significant) than either man had in any round prior.

In its immediate aftermath, fight fans and pundits have been quick to label Henderson and Rua’s grisly, back-and-forth brawl an instant classic. Were it not for the latest in a seemingly never-ending string of questionable judging decisions, we might have gotten another.