UFC 286 Beforemath: Will Leon Edwards Legitimize His Title Reign?

We are in for yet another treat this weekend, as Leon Edwards and Kamaru Usman close out their trilogy at UFC 286. With the series split at 1-1 and based on how their last fight ended, this welterweight title fight has the highest stakes. Today’s Beforemath will be a deeper look at this matchup and how both Usman and Edwards can put a stamp on the trilogy and settle who is truly the best welterweight in the world.

Usman: Wrestle, Just Wrestle

Let us be completely honest with ourselves. In their last fight, Edwards completely gave up on himself at the end of that fight. He needed this pep talk from his coach to keep his head in the game. While it was romanticized knowing how the fight ended, Usman almost completely shut out Edwards aside from one takedown in the first round and the final sequence. Where Usman failed was in letting himself be lulled into a self-confidence that had him striking with the striker.

To get his title back, Usman will almost assuredly come into the cage donning the old wrestling singlet from his Nebraska-Kearney days. It is imperative that Usman not get drawn into another firefight and think he can keep himself safe. Wrestle first and wrestle hard. Make Edwards’ life a living hell and show him that those moments of self-doubt from the second fight are still there.

However, Edwards has been training to be an anti-Usman fighter since their first meeting in 2015. An extra seven months will provide some extra nuances and Usman can’t rely on his successes from the second fight alone. His team will have to anticipate what Edwards is going to do from his successes last fight.

First, the takedown. Edwards became the first person in the UFC to take down Usman. He didn’t do it off of a single or double-leg shot: Edwards caught Usman hanging out in the clinch for too long, turned him away and tripped him instead of muscling him down. It wasn’t a strength-based attempt, it was pure finesse. Usman needs to recognize that Edwards will have seen this in tape and will go to that well more often. If Usman has Edwards against the cage and Edwards pummels to the body lock, hanging around there will not be a good idea if Edwards can turn him away.

When he gets Edwards pushed back, instead of hanging on in the clinch like the Masvidal fight, Usman can instead land some strikes as Edwards looks to defend a takedown and pull Usman up into the clinch. In the second fight, (1 and 2) Usman walks Edwards to the fence and lands a cross while he keeps his hips square for the takedown. Edwards sees this and is not prepared to be punched but was looking for the shot. Looking for a bit more damage, (3) Usman throws another elbow on the step in. This puts Usman in clinch range and Edwards just wants the punches to stop and (4) defends by clinching up. Notice how Edwards has his hands wrapped around Usman’s neck and isn’t looking to pummel to prevent the takedown. He is expecting another round of elbows. Usman will (5) change levels as Edwards isn’t trying to defend the takedown.

With Edwards likely looking for the sweep, using his striking against the fence as a way to look for openings for takedowns. Edwards gets flustered when he is pushed back and Usman can exploit this and get to those ever-valuable shots.

But pushing Edwards to the fence won’t be as easy as it is to write about. Again, Edwards has been working to become the anti-Usman since 2015 and his footwork plays into keeping him off the center line and away from takedowns. Usman will have to threaten the takedown in the center of the ring as well. The low kick can help this as well. We saw the low kick used just last week when Merab Dvalishvili smashed the left leg of Petr Yan to take away orthodox from Yan and make the leg more accessible. (Read more about that on Aftermath.) We saw Usman use the stance switch with Usman as a method to time the takedown in the first fight.

In the first fight, we see (1) Edwards throw the rear-leg teep, or push kick, and Usman successfully parries it away. (2) When the foot comes down, Edwards lands in orthodox, and wants to step back into southpaw where he can throw that left high kick that he would eventually catch Usman with all those years later. (3) As Edwards steps his rear leg back, there’s a split second where Usman has the chance to change levels and snatch up the leg of Edwards. (4) Usman times it perfectly and gets in on the single and eventually the takedown.

With these open-mat takedowns, Edwards will want to retreat and that will give Usman time to get the takedown against the fence as we discussed earlier. Relying on one or the other will not do it. It needs to be a tandem effort to make Edwards retreat as much as possible. His offense is not nearly as effective when he’s coming off the back foot.

Edwards: Up the Ante

The stakes at UFC 286 couldn’t be higher for Edwards. His first win is seen as a fluke by many, he was soundly beaten for most of the fight and he’s now fighting at home. There is a lot of pressure in the “Rocky” camp for Edwards to defend his title and legitimize his legacy as a welterweight champion and not end up a flash in the pan.

Going into the trilogy, Edwards will likely have to fight the fight of his life to stave off the takedown. Usman is coming to wrestle and that’s what really hurt Edwards in the first two fights. The inability to stay out of the clinch and from the edge of the fence cost Edwards many rounds. Doing what he’s trained to do for some years now is at its highest critical point.

Proper footwork and long-range attacks will be key to Edwards’ victory come Saturday night. Usman will come forward with these wild, wound-up punches that he uses to back people up. Edwards is going to have to slip, parry, and counter his way out of such wild exchanges. Minding his energy levels and working the body of Usman will also exacerbate that advantage. Edwards will also have to stay off the center line and not let Usman plow right through him. His footwork in tandem with the jab and teep will slow Usman down and make him fight Edwards’ game.

One good tool to keep Usman corralled can be gleaned from that takedown in the first round of the second fight. It was such a monumental moment and cannot be ignored. We talked about Usman not hanging around in the clinch earlier due to this which should show how important it is. When Edwards managed to get Usman down, Usman just accepted the position and decided to wait it out. Edwards will have to dare Usman to either stop his sweep attempts or do something when he gets taken down.

With Edwards being a striker, he wasn’t seen as a threat to take Usman down. Former collegiate wrestler Colby Covington couldn’t do it, how could Edwards? Well, the answer can be seen above. (1) In line with the threat mentioned previously, Usman hung around too long in the clinch. Unlike later in the fight, Edwards was happy to engage in grappling and, you’ll notice, has his arms on the inside, completely opposite from later in the fight. Edwards would (2) turn Usman off the fence and tighten up his body lock as he does so, lifting Usman up slightly, raising his center of gravity. Now Edwards is cleared to (3) reap his leg around and (4) lean Usman over the reaped leg and to the ground.

If Usman is going to let Edwards sit on his back and steal easy rounds, Edwards will let him. However, the later in the fight it happens, and the more frequent it happens, the takedown defense will become stiffer and the attempts to escape and reverse will become more aggressive. Edwards needs the takedowns in the first three rounds, although this doesn’t exclude late takedowns to steal the fight.

Next, I want to talk briefly about the leg kick. For the love of everything that is martial, kick Usman’s legs. He has notoriously bad knees. He can’t walk on concrete and has to climb stairs backwards. His knees are shot. Kick them. It will hurt. It will immobilize. Nobody has kicked Usman’s legs and it absolutely drives me up a wall.

Lastly, we wouldn’t have done this matchup justice without having talked about the famous high kick that Edwards landed to earn him the title. It was a beautiful setup that Edwards had been looking for since 2015 and finally found it when the stakes were highest.

The kick worked so well because of Usman’s propensity to lean to the right when he slips a punch to load up on the right for a counter. It’s his strong hand and he leans that way out of reflex. Edwards knows this and finally found the spot. (1) Edwards starts off the combination by showing the jab and queuing the kick up with his leg from the same time. It’s the jab that masks the step in for Edwards for the kick. (2) Usman sees the jab and slips to his right just as Edwards has the kick chambered up. With his knee bent, all he has to is flick his leg, karate style, and (3) land the strike. This put Usman down and saw his title reign at least temporarily ended. If I’m Edwards, I’m throwing this exact combination the very first exchange come Saturday night. It may work again, but it will almost surely give Usman some pause. He will have to remember getting caught, losing his top pound-for-pound spot, and becoming a challenger again.

One more thing to note for Edwards: He cannot get down on himself if things don’t go his way at the start of the fight. He can finish but if he goes in there expecting a first round finish and mentally checks out when the second, third, or even fourth round comes to fruition, he will lose this fight. He had given up on himself in the last fight. It was evident by his body language on the bench. But he went out and executed. It’s an important lesson and a wild one to learn in a title fight of all places. Keep your head in the game, Edwards. All of the O2 will be behind you.

A win over Usman to close out the trilogy would be huge for Edwards and would legitimize him as the welterweight champ in the eyes of those who doubt him. While he may have had pressure going into the last fight, this will be a different type. He’s proving himself while he’s the champion. He has to perform in his hometown. And Usman will be hungry for revenge. Edwards will need to overcome all this to remain champion.