Preview: UFC Fight Night 204 Prelims

Heavyweights

NR | Sergei Pavlovich (14-1, 2-1 UFC) vs. #10 HW | Shamil Abdurakhimov (20-6, 5-4 UFC)

ODDS: Pavlovich (-280), Abdurakhimov (+220)

If this goes off without a hitch, this is an intriguing matchup between Russian countrymen looking to prove their relevance at heavyweight. For Shamil Abdurakhimov, that means proving that he has not fallen off after a few years of age and inactivity. Born in Dagestan, Abdurakhimov does not have the style you would expect from a man with his heritage and large frame. Instead of a grinding wrestler, “Abrek” finds his greatest success as a mobile striker looking to counter his opponent. Earlier in his UFC career, Abdurakhimov could reliably hold his own as a Top 10 heavyweight, albeit often in frustrating fashion as he looked to outmaneuver and neutralize his foes. However, the last three years raise some concerns that Abdurakhimov can no longer win on such narrow margins. Curtis Blaydes absolutely mauled him in late 2019, and his September performance against Chris Daukaus was a major cause for concern. Now 40 years old, Abdurakhimov essentially got knocked out twice against what turned out to be a much quicker prospect. He will look to rebound against Pavlovich, who has been under the radar for most of his UFC run, owing to his own stretches of inactivity. Expectations were deservedly high for Pavlovich coming into the UFC, as the Russian went undefeated against a strong level of competition prior to his debut, fighting behind a strong wrestling base and some knockout power. So it was not necessarily a surprise when the promotion threw him into the deep end against Alistair Overeem for that debut, though it did make it a disappointment when it turned out to be a quick and one-sided win for “The Demolition Man.” To his credit, Pavlovich looked greatly improved in rebounding from that result in 2019, putting much more focus into volume and aggression that paid a ton of dividends given his level of power and skill. However, injuries and visa issues have now kept Pavlovich on the sidelines for roughly two and a half years, slowing any momentum gained from those performances. If Pavlovich has continued to improve during his time off, he should be able to find a win here. Abdurakhimov can still be elusive, but Pavlovich is a large man in his own right with a sneakily long reach that should be able to find him a knockout, particularly with the aggression he showed in his last two fights. The pick is Pavlovich via second-round knockout.

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