UFC on Fox 12 Preview

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Lightweights

Josh Thomson (20-6, 3-2 UFC) vs. Bobby Green (22-5, 3-0 UFC)

The Matchup: Another intriguing matchup of experienced veteran versus rising fighter starts off the main card on Fox when perennial bridesmaid Thomson faces off against up-and-comer Green. Thomson is looking to fight his way back to relevance after dropping a close, controversial decision to former champion Benson Henderson, while Green is attempting to put his name in the conversation at the top of the loaded UFC lightweight division.

In terms of their well-rounded ability to strike, wrestle, work in transition and grapple, Thomson and Green are fairly similar, even if they go about doing those things in very different ways. The difference is output. Thomson fights at a measured, restrained pace -- likely the product of so many five-round fights over his career -- while Green works quickly from the opening bell, throwing hard combinations to the body and head while landing rapid-fire takedowns to break up the pace.

Mostly a boxer, though he throws the occasional kick, Green tends to keep his hands low and relies on head movement and control of the range to avoid his opponent’s strikes. This could be bad news against Thomson, who excels at using his punches to move his opponent into his high kicks as they angle out. If the fight happens mostly at distance, however, Green’s greater output and ability to work multiple levels gives him a slight edge. Both fighters are excellent wrestlers, though Thomson likely has the edge in grappling and scrambling. Still, Green is skilled enough to survive on the ground and in transition against his more experienced adversary.

The Pick: Although Green is the underdog -- he sits around +200 on most books -- I cannot help but think that Thomson’s historically low output and long career will catch up to him. Green is talented and well-rounded, with excellent physical tools and the ability to produce the volume that judges love. Over three rounds, that should be enough. Green wins unanimous decision.

Last Fights » The Prelims